Highest temperature in Taipei on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this Taipei heat contract at a sharp skew towards **36°C**, with that bucket marked **93%** and **37°C or higher** only **5%**. The market settles in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, so the live price is a direct read on where traders think the Taipei Songshan Airport Station high will land when Wunderground publishes the day’s maximum reading.

The zero per cent implied probability for **YES** on the broader event is not unusual for a weather market this late in the session, because the contract is not a binary call on heat but a range outcome. Taipei’s summer climatology supports the upper end of the board: July is typically the hottest month in the city, with an average daytime high around **34°C**. That means a 36°C print is above normal but still comfortably within the plausible distribution, while a 37°C-plus reading would require a notably hot afternoon rather than an ordinary July day.

What matters from here is the intraday setup at Taipei Songshan Airport rather than any policy or calendar event. The key catalysts are cloud cover, humidity, wind and afternoon sea-breeze timing, all of which affect the airport’s recorded high and the chance of a late-day spike. At 11:00 UTC, Taipei conditions were already warm and humid, with overcast skies and a temperature of **89°F**; that kind of moisture can support a high heat index, but the market will settle on the actual measured temperature, not RealFeel.

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Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on July 22? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.