Highest temperature in Taipei on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius by Wunderground. Today, Polymarket prices the contract for a 33°C high at 0% YES, implying the crowd views this threshold as virtually impossible given the station’s July climatology. Historical data confirms July is Taipei’s hottest month, with Songshan Airport averaging a high of 92°F (33.3°C) and frequently exceeding 95°F (35°C) during heatwaves, as noted by WeatherSpark[2]. Recent forecasts for today show a high of 95°F (35°C) with afternoon rain, suggesting the market’s 0% probability may be misaligned with typical seasonal peaks[6].

Traders should monitor the Central Weather Administration’s daily heat advisories and any scheduled typhoon approaches, which could suppress temperatures below 33°C. A recent CWA report highlights that top-100 temperature records for the district are actively tracked, providing a direct dependency for resolution accuracy[3]. While no typhoon is currently forecast, the chance of scattered thunderstorms later today introduces volatility that could lower the peak temperature, a factor absent from the current pricing[4]. The market resolves only after Wunderground publishes the first data point for 7 July, meaning real-time adjustments to temperature readings remain possible until that cutoff[1]. USDC liquidity on Polygon remains thin for this conditional token, so price discovery may lag behind actual weather shifts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.