Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, settling the conditional token pair currently trading at 0% YES on Polygon. The market structure requires traders to select a specific temperature range, with USDC collateral locked into conditional tokens that resolve based on which bracket captures the actual daily maximum. The 0% probability reflects either extreme confidence in a particular range or minimal liquidity across all buckets at present.

August represents Tokyo's hottest month climatologically, with daily maxima typically ranging from 32–35°C, though heat waves can push readings above 37°C. Historical data from Haneda shows that temperatures exceeding 38°C occur roughly once per decade in August, whilst readings below 30°C are exceptionally rare. The 2023 summer saw Tokyo record 40.5°C on 16 August, demonstrating that extreme heat remains plausible during this window, though such events remain statistical outliers rather than baseline expectations.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August, which typically provide reliable 10-day outlooks. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into northern hemisphere summer can shift seasonal temperature patterns meaningfully. Recent reporting from Reuters in 2024 noted that Tokyo's urban heat island effect continues intensifying, potentially raising baseline expectations for future Augusts. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 12 August, requiring traders to account for any timezone conversion between Haneda local time and the resolution timestamp.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.