Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 13 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by the specific temperature range containing that peak reading. The current market pricing reflects zero probability across all temperature brackets, a technical artifact common in newly-listed weather contracts on Polygon where initial liquidity pools haven't yet attracted meaningful trader participation in USDC conditional tokens.

August represents Tokyo's hottest month climatologically, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C, though extreme heat events have pushed temperatures above 37°C in recent years. The 2023 summer saw Tokyo record 40.2°C on 13 July, and 2022 brought sustained temperatures above 35°C throughout August. These precedents suggest that mid-range brackets (33–36°C) should carry substantially higher implied probability than the current flat pricing indicates, assuming normal seasonal conditions prevail in 2026. Weather Underground's Daily Observations data, which this market explicitly privileges over summary figures, often captures intraday peaks that differ from official JMA records, introducing a data-source dependency traders must account for.

Catalysts affecting August 2026 temperatures include the strength of the Pacific high-pressure system, tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, and any anomalous upper-atmosphere patterns. Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks, typically released in late June, will provide the first formal guidance on summer temperature trends. Real-time monitoring of sea-surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Current and atmospheric pressure patterns from mid-July onwards will signal whether conditions favour above or below-normal heat intensity during the settlement window.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.