Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this Tokyo Haneda high-temperature contract at **0% YES** on USDC collateral, reflecting a market that is effectively saying the listed outcome range is not being assigned any probability despite the position settling against the Wunderground Haneda reading. Because the market resolves off the **highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station** by **12:00 UTC**, traders are really holding a conditional token tied to one specific daily maximum, not a vague Tokyo-wide forecast.

That near-zero price sits awkwardly against Tokyo’s normal August climate. Historical sources put average August highs in the low 30s Celsius, with typical daytime peaks around 31°C and recorded August extremes much higher, including highs above 37°C in long-run climate data and up to 39°C in broader Tokyo records[1][3][7][12]. In other words, the contract is referencing an outcome that is meteorologically routine for the season, even if a particular range may look mispriced on the board.

The main catalysts are the day’s actual weather evolution and whether any rain, cloud cover, sea breeze, or heat-advisory conditions change the afternoon maximum before the settlement cutoff. Traders should watch the Wunderground history page through the late-morning and early-afternoon Tokyo window, because the market resolves on the day’s final recorded high rather than an average or forecast[10]. Any short-term temperature update from a recognised forecast provider such as AccuWeather, which currently shows August highs in Tokyo generally in the low-to-upper 80s Fahrenheit, is useful only as a directional guide; the on-chain position still settles strictly from the Wunderground source via Polygon and conditional tokens[6][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.