Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s **highest recorded temperature** on 4 August is the live reference for this Polymarket contract, and the market is currently pricing **0% YES** against settlement in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens. The move only resolves off the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station reading in Wunderground’s daily history, so the practical question for traders is whether the airport posts a daily maximum in the settled Celsius band before the 12:00 UTC cut-off, not whether Tokyo feels broadly hot. August forecasts for Tokyo still cluster in the low-30s Celsius, with AccuWeather showing daily highs around 33–35°C and long-term guides describing the month as the city’s hottest, humid season.[1][9][13]

The current 0% price can be read against that seasonal backdrop: in Tokyo, daily peaks above 30°C are normal in August, but the exact contract outcome depends on one station’s highest hourly reading rather than the city average. JMA’s historical station data shows Tokyo-area maxima commonly reaching the mid-30s Celsius in early August, including Haneda at 35.6°C on 1 August and 33.0°C on 2 August in the same monthly series, which indicates that high-end outcomes are plausible even when forecasts are only moderate.[10] For a trader holding or considering a buy, the key comparison is the gap between the market’s implied zero and the day’s forecast band, not the broader climatology.[1][10]

The main catalysts are the intraday forecast path, any rain or cloud cover over Haneda, and the timing of peak heat before the settlement window closes. Tokyo forecasts around this date show a warm but not extreme profile, with hourly and monthly guidance pointing to highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius and some rain risk in August, which can cap the station’s maximum if clouds and showers arrive early.[2][17] For Polymarket users, that matters because the contract’s conditional tokens are ultimately redeemed from the single resolved Wunderground figure, so late-day cooling or a missed afternoon spike can matter as much as the morning forecast.[2][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.