Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station high for 6 August as a **0% YES** tail on USDC collateralised conditional tokens on Polygon, which means the crowd sees almost no chance of the day’s peak landing in the market’s priced range. The live ladder still matters because settlement will be based on the single highest temperature recorded that day at Haneda, not the citywide average, and the market remains open until the official reading is in. Polymarket’s own market page shows the contract mechanics and the current pricing distribution, with the front end updating as traders reposition around incoming weather data.[5]

Historically, August in Tokyo is a high-heat month: independent guides and weather archives put average daytime highs around 30–31°C, while the Japan Meteorological Agency’s Tokyo August table shows early-month highs already in the mid-30s at some Tokyo-area stations.[1][7][9][10] For context, the JMA’s daily figures for 1–2 August 2026 show Haneda highs of 35.6°C and 33.0°C respectively, which is exactly the sort of range that keeps the upper buckets live even when the market is concentrated elsewhere.[1] A recent Polymarket reference point also matters: a separate Tokyo temperature market for 4 August resolved at 29°C, showing how quickly these ladders can collapse when cloud cover, rain, or marine air suppresses the afternoon peak.[18]

For traders, the key catalysts are the morning and early-afternoon Tokyo forecast updates, plus any shift in the synoptic pattern over eastern Japan that alters cloud, rain, or wind direction before the daily maximum is set. The most relevant dependency is the official Haneda observation itself, which can differ from central Tokyo forecasts because coastal exposure often caps the peak when sea breezes build. A recent July media run on Japan’s 2026 heat, alongside JMA seasonal guidance cited in market commentary, points to above-normal summer temperatures nationwide and a stronger Pacific High after the rainy season, but local showers or typhoon-adjacent flow can still shave several degrees off the station’s final reading.[15][16][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.