Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s Haneda Airport is expected to face July heat on 10 July 2026, with daily highs forecast between 26°C and 32°C, while overnight lows sit near 26°C to 28°C[1][2]. The current Polymarket contract prices a “YES” outcome (temperature ≥30°C) at 0%, implying the crowd believes the peak will stay below that threshold. This on-chain position, settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, reflects a tight bracket where traders see little chance of breaching 30°C despite Japan’s recent record-breaking summers.

Historically, July in Tokyo often sees temperatures in the low 30s, with rain or cloud cover daily and high humidity[9]. Yet Japan has shattered its all-time heat record twice recently: 41.1°C in 2018 at Kumagaya[3] and 41.2°C in 2025 in Tamba City, Hyogo Prefecture[5][6]. These outliers suggest that while 30°C is plausible, the 0% price may be overly cautious if a sudden heatwave aligns with typical July patterns.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s weekly forecasts and any sudden shifts in Pacific pressure systems that could trigger rapid warming. A recent Reuters report confirms the nation’s vulnerability to extreme heat, with 2025 marking the highest-ever temperature[5]. Watch for announcements on urban cooling measures or emergency heat alerts, as these dependencies could shift on-chain liquidity before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes on 10 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.