Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 13 July 2026 at Haneda Airport is the real-world event this contract tracks, with the market currently pricing a YES outcome at 0%. On Polymarket, traders use USDC on Polygon to buy conditional tokens representing temperature ranges; the zero probability suggests the crowd expects the day’s peak to fall outside the specific range offered, likely due to prevailing cloud cover and rain forecasts for Monday.

Historical July highs at Haneda typically sit between 28°C and 33°C, with the average high around 28–30°C during the plum rainy season, though spikes to 35°C+ are rare but documented in clear-sky years [4][5]. The current 0% YES price aligns with forecasts showing 30°C highs and rain on 13 July, matching the 201 pattern of mostly cloudy conditions that suppress extreme heat [2][5]. Past markets, such as the July 3 event that resolved at 26°C, show how early forecasts can self-correct as actual data arrives [9].

Traders should monitor the hourly updates from Wunderground for Haneda (RJTT) as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, and watch for any sudden shifts in the National Weather Service time-series data for RJTT, which could signal a heat spike [8]. The AccuWeather monthly forecast for Haneda in July 2026 notes daily highs of 28–32°C, reinforcing the low probability of an extreme outlier unless a rapid change in cloud cover occurs [1][3]. No official announcements are expected, but real-time station data will be the sole catalyst for resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.