Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either thin liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which range will settle. Traders are pricing conditional tokens on USDC via Polygon, with resolution tied to a specific meteorological reading rather than forecast models or subjective assessment.

July in Tokyo typically sees daily highs between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 37°C during heatwaves. The city experienced 37.5°C on 23 July 2022 and 36.7°C on 28 July 2019, establishing that mid-to-high 30s readings are routine for this date. The 0% crowd probability across all bands is unusual and likely reflects either no active trading interest or a technical issue with market initialisation rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded.

The Japan Meteorological Agency publishes seasonal outlooks and heat alerts; traders should monitor July 2026 forecasts as they emerge in spring and early summer. Haneda Airport's urban location and proximity to Tokyo Bay influence local temperatures compared to inland stations, making the specific measurement point material to settlement. Any significant weather pattern shifts—such as early arrival of the East Asian monsoon or persistent high-pressure systems—would shift the probability distribution, though such catalysts remain unknowable at present.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.