Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 6 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on that date. Today, Polymarket prices the contract such that the 26°C bracket holds a 47% implied probability, while the 25°C bracket sits at 39%, indicating the crowd expects a warm summer day rather than a cool one. This pricing reflects the on-chain mechanics of conditional tokens on the Polygon network, where USDC liquidity flows into the most likely temperature ranges, creating a dynamic market that updates as new weather data emerges.

Historical patterns for early July in Tokyo show average daytime highs between 27°C and 35°C, with summer temperatures frequently exceeding 30°C due to extreme humidity levels between 78% and 83%[3][4]. The 2026 summer season has already delivered record-breaking heat, with Tokyo reaching 36.8°C on a recent Wednesday, confirming that the city is experiencing dangerous conditions typical of peak summer[7]. Given these comparable cases, the current market probability of 0% for temperatures below 19°C aligns with the reality that early July in Tokyo rarely produces cool weather, making the 26°C bracket the logical frontrunner.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and the lingering rainy season, which can cause persistently humid weather in Kanazawa and nearby regions before clearing in Tokyo[5]. A key catalyst is the scheduled release of daily high-temperature data from Wunderground, which will serve as the official resolution source once the first data point for 6 July is published[1]. Recent news confirms that 271 of Japan’s 914 observation points exceeded 35°C this week, suggesting that the heatwave may continue into early July and support the 26°C outcome[7]. No moralising is needed; the facts indicate that the market is correctly pricing the high probability of warm temperatures.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.