Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 7 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the resolution sourced from Wunderground’s daily history. Today, Polymarket prices the YES contract at 0%, implying the crowd believes the event is virtually impossible, though this figure reflects on-chain conditional token mechanics rather than absolute meteorological certainty. Traders using USDC on the Polygon network are effectively betting that the temperature will fall within a specific bin, with the current market structure suggesting extreme scepticism about any particular range hitting.

Historically, Tokyo Haneda’s July highs typically range between 27°C and 31°C, with recent data showing a maximum daytime temperature of 30°C and overnight lows near 24°C[1]. BBC Weather reports drizzle and a gentle breeze for today, with a high of 27°C and 80% humidity[4], while AccuWeather forecasts July 2026 highs between 76°F and 91°F (24.4°C–32.8°C)[6]. A recent record of 41.2°C in Tamba city highlights Japan’s capacity for extreme heat, though Haneda’s coastal location usually moderates peaks[7]. The 0% price likely stems from bin-specific uncertainty rather than a belief that no heat will occur.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily forecasts and Wunderground’s real-time updates as the settlement window closes on 2026-07-07T12:00:00Z. Key catalysts include sudden shifts in easterly wind patterns, precipitation levels, and humidity spikes, all of which directly influence maximum temperatures[4]. While no major announcements are pending, the on-chain resolution depends entirely on the first data point published for 7 July, making timing critical for conditional token holders[2]. The market’s 38% implied chance for the 27°C bin suggests volatility remains a factor[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.