Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s July 9, 2026 high temperature at Haneda Airport is the real-world event this market resolves, with the crowd currently pricing a 30°C outcome at 97% probability, not the abstract notion of summer heat[1]. This near-certainty contrasts sharply with the 0% YES probability you mentioned for a different contract, as the active Polymarket market shows traders overwhelmingly confident in 30°C, while 31°C and 32°C outcomes each carry less than 1% chance[1]. Historical context frames this confidence: Tokyo’s average July maximum is around 28°C, but daily highs frequently reach 30°C to 34°C, especially in late July when peaks of 37°C to 38°C are not uncommon[4][5]. Haneda’s own July 2026 forecast shows daily highs ranging from 79°F to 89°F (approximately 26°C to 32°C), with an average high of 87°F (30.6°C), aligning closely with the market’s frontrunner[7].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s three-day forecast issued on 7 July, which covers 7–9 July, for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation that could suppress temperatures below 30°C[8]. A key catalyst is the expected rainfall in early July across coastal regions like Kanazawa, which lingers into mid-July and may bring humid, cooler conditions to Haneda if the rainy season persists[5]. Additionally, flight operators like JAL have flagged potential delays or cancellations on 9 July due to bad weather, suggesting active meteorological volatility that could impact the official high temperature reading[6]. With total volume at $8,757 and nearly all activity concentrated in the last 24 hours, the market reflects urgent, on-chain positioning using USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, where traders are betting heavily on the 30°C band before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.