Highest temperature in Wellington on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Wellington airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, which means the market currently assigns no chance to the day’s top reading landing in the YES range before the 1 August 2026 settlement cutoff. The event is straightforward in physical terms: traders are waiting on the single highest Celsius temperature reported at Wellington Intl Airport Station, with Polymarket’s outcome tokenised on Polygon and settled in USDC via conditional tokens rather than by any discretionary interpretation.

For context, Wellington’s August climate is usually cool and steady rather than hot. Historical summaries put average August highs around **11–14°C**, with typical daily maxima near **12°C** and monthly records in the mid-teens rather than anything extreme.[1][3][4][9] That matters for reading a zero-implied-probability price: the market is not saying a warm reading is impossible, only that the current bucket distribution is overwhelmingly tilted towards the lower temperature ranges. A single late-August warm surge can still matter, but the base rate is against a large upside surprise.

The main catalysts are the local forecast evolution, any sudden changes in wind direction or offshore flow, and whether a brief daytime warming window lines up with the airport’s observation schedule before 12:00 UTC. Traders should watch the Wellington Airport Wunderground daily page for the actual high as the day develops, because the market settles on that source’s recorded maximum rather than on a city average.[11][15] In practical terms, the price will be driven by the nearest live airport observations, not by broader Wellington weather summaries or national averages.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.