Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Wellington airport temperature contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is currently behaving as if there is no realistic chance of a warm outlier printing at the station by the settlement cut-off. On Polymarket, that view is expressed in **USDC** and cleared on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, so the live price is really a statement about traders’ expectations for the highest observed reading at Wellington Intl Airport Station within the Wunderground history record, not a forecast of how the day feels on the ground.

For context, August in Wellington is usually cool and fairly stable, with typical monthly highs clustered around **12–14°C** and average temperatures near **8.8–12°C** in published climate datasets.[1][2][9] Longer-run August records show that the city can still spike above those norms: one source cites an August record high of **61°F** (about **16°C**) in 2009, while recent climate summaries note that Wellington was the wettest and least sunny of New Zealand’s six main centres in August 2025.[7][4] That combination of a low seasonal baseline and occasional brief warm spells is the key frame for reading a zero-priced contract.

A trader watching this market would focus less on headlines and more on the day’s local weather sequence, especially cloud break, wind shifts, and any dry, sunny window that could lift the airport maximum before the Wunderground daily close. Wellington’s August climate is often windy and rain-affected, with around **93 mm** of monthly rainfall and roughly **9 rainy days** in one set of averages, which can cap intraday heating even when air masses turn milder.[2][9] Because settlement is tied to the recorded maximum at Wellington Intl Airport Station, the live station output matters more than broader regional forecasts; a late-morning or early-afternoon pulse is the main route to an upside surprise.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.