Highest temperature in Wellington on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Wellington airport temperature contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively assuming no credible chance of a very mild 4 August reading when the settlement source is the day’s highest temperature at Wellington Intl Airport Station, paid in USDC and resolved through the Polygon-based conditional-token framework. In plain weather terms, August in Wellington is usually cool and changeable rather than warm: long-run climate data put typical August highs around 12–14°C, with monthly averages clustering near 11–12°C.[1][2][8][15]

That 0% reading is best read against the airport’s August history, where daily highs commonly sit in the low teens and extremes are limited. Wellington’s August record high cited in seasonal guides is about 16°C, while recent August averages have remained close to 12°C, which means the contract’s upper temperature bands need an unusually strong warm spell to become relevant.[6][15][20] On a live market, that leaves the pricing heavily anchored to climatology rather than to any single-day anomaly.

For traders, the practical catalysts are the local weather pattern into the morning UTC close, the airport’s official observations, and whether a front, southerly change, or brief sunbreak shifts the day’s maximum before the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC. The key dependency is the Wunderground history page for Wellington Intl Airport Station, because that is the resolution source and the final temperature printed there determines which range wins.[7] If the synoptic setup remains seasonally cool, the contract is likely to stay pinned near the bottom of the ladder; a warm northerly incursion would be the main factor capable of reopening upside.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.