Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington, New Zealand, is currently experiencing cool midwinter conditions, with the highest temperature recorded today at 9.0°C at Wellington Central, making any significant heat spike on July 13, 2026, statistically improbable [9]. This aligns with the market’s current 0% implied probability for a "YES" outcome, as July in Wellington typically sees average highs near 12–14°C, far below the thresholds that would trigger a payout in most temperature-range contracts [5].

Historically, Wellington’s July maximums rarely exceed 15°C, with the all-time record for the city (Kelburn) reaching 30.3°C only on an exceptional heatwave day in summer, not midwinter [1]. The 2026 past weather data for Wellington confirms no anomalous warmth this month, reinforcing that the current pricing reflects realistic climatic constraints rather than market inefficiency [2].

Traders should monitor the MetService and NIWA daily bulletins for any unexpected southern ridge shifts or coastal inversion breaks, though such events are extremely rare in July [9][1]. No scheduled climate announcements or extreme weather forecasts have been issued for the Wellington region ahead of the settlement date, and Wunderground’s historical station data for NZWN remains the definitive resolution source [1]. With the settlement window closing at 2026-07-13T12:00:00Z, the on-chain USDC position on Polygon remains static, as conditional tokens reflect the near-zero likelihood of a temperature breach.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.