Highest temperature in Wellington on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature on 15 July 2026 at the International Airport Station is the real-world event this contract tracks, with settlement locked to Wunderground’s daily record in degrees Celsius. On Polymarket, the USDC-denominated pool on Polygon prices the 12°C outcome at 47% and 13°C also at 47%, while the market currently shows 0% implied probability for any “YES” outcome on a binary framing that isn’t the actual resolution structure. Traders hold conditional tokens representing these temperature ranges, and liquidity moves as new weather data updates the on-chain pricing engine.

Historically, mid-July in Wellington sees peak daytime temperatures typically between 10°C and 14°C, with 12°C and 13°C being the most frequent highs at the airport station. The crowd’s split between these two ranges mirrors past winter patterns where cloud cover and southerly winds cap warming, making extreme outliers rare. This distribution explains why no single outcome dominates and why the 0% “YES” probability likely reflects a mismatch between the binary label and the actual multi-outcome resolution.

Traders should monitor the 24-hour forecast from the New Zealand MetService for shifts in wind direction and cloud thickness, as a weakening southerly flow could push temperatures toward 13°C or higher. A recent MetService bulletin notes that persistent south-southwesterly winds are expected through mid-July, keeping temperatures near the lower end of the seasonal range [3]. Any unexpected northerly surge or clear-sky radiative warming before noon UTC would be the key catalyst to watch before settlement at 2026-07-15T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on July 15? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.