Highest temperature in Wellington on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington Airport will record a single highest temperature on 21 July 2026, measured in Celsius at the official station. The current Polymarket pricing reflects 0% probability across all temperature bands, suggesting minimal trading activity or consensus that no outcome has sufficient conviction to attract capital. This is typical for weather markets far in advance, where USDC liquidity pools conditional tokens that only settle once Wunderground publishes the historical daily maximum for that specific date and location.

July sits firmly within Wellington's winter season, when daytime highs typically range between 11–13°C. Historical data from the past decade shows maximum temperatures on mid-July dates rarely exceed 15°C, with sub-10°C days occurring roughly one year in three. The coldest recorded July maxima at Wellington Airport have fallen to 6–7°C during polar outbreaks, whilst unusually mild winters have occasionally pushed readings toward 18°C. These bounds establish the realistic envelope for settlement; traders should weight outcomes between 8–14°C as statistically most probable given seasonal climatology.

The New Zealand MetService issues extended forecasts roughly ten days ahead, with meaningful accuracy emerging five to seven days before 21 July. Traders monitoring the Southern Oscillation Index and Tasman Sea surface temperatures can anticipate whether an Antarctic high or subtropical ridge will dominate Wellington's weather pattern that week. Any significant warming system tracking toward the region—rare but possible in mid-winter—would shift probability mass toward higher temperature bands. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 21 July, allowing final price adjustments once morning forecasts confirm the day's trajectory.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.