Highest temperature in Wellington on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Wellington airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, which implies the market sees almost no chance that the day’s recorded high at Wellington Intl Airport reaches the relevant settlement band. The contract settles against the highest temperature logged at Wellington Intl Airport Station on 24 July 2026, with outcomes determined from Wunderground history data and paid in USDC via Polygon conditional tokens, so traders are effectively expressing a view on a single station reading rather than a citywide forecast.

That pricing sits against Wellington’s July climatology, where typical daytime highs are around **12°C** and rainfall is frequent, with July usually bringing more than 20 wet days. In other words, the market is not just betting on a cool winter day; it is trading the probability of an isolated warm spike at an airport station, which is usually harder to achieve than an average daily maximum. A 0% read therefore suggests participants think the likely maximum stays well below any higher temperature band being offered in the market.

For the rest of the session, the main catalysts are the live hourly forecast, local cloud and wind shifts, and whether any short-lived northerly or föhn-like warming develops before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. At present, AccuWeather shows cloudy conditions around 49°F with a 20% precipitation chance, which is consistent with a subdued early-winter setup rather than a sharp daytime surge. On Polymarket, that means the key watchpoint is not the abstract weather pattern but whether the airport can print an unexpected mid-morning or late-morning peak before the market locks in the Wunderground maximum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.