Highest temperature in Wellington on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 25 July 2026, Wellington International Airport will record a daily maximum temperature, and this market settles on which range that figure falls into. The current 0% probability assigned to the YES outcome reflects the market's assessment of the likelihood of temperatures reaching the upper threshold bands available for settlement. USDC holders on Polygon are pricing this contract at the extremes, suggesting either strong conviction about cooler conditions or minimal liquidity in the higher temperature brackets.

Wellington's winter climate—July sits in the Southern Hemisphere's coldest season—provides the baseline context. Historical data from the airport station shows July daily maxima typically range between 10–13°C, with occasional peaks to 15°C during warmer spells and rare dips below 8°C during cold snaps. The 0% probability on YES outcomes suggests traders expect the day to fall within or below this established range rather than producing an anomalous warm event. Comparable July days from recent years show little deviation from this pattern, making extreme temperatures statistically unlikely without significant atmospheric disruption.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 July, giving traders access to morning forecasts and early-day observations before final pricing. New Zealand's MetService issues detailed forecasts five to seven days ahead, and any unusual pressure systems or northerly wind patterns would surface in their updates by mid-July. Traders should monitor synoptic charts for anomalous warmth or cold air masses moving across the lower North Island, though such deviations rarely produce the temperature extremes needed to trigger higher-range settlements in Wellington's winter.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.