Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is assigning no visible probability to Wellington Airport’s 31 July 2026 maximum landing in the specified temperature band. On Polymarket, that view is expressed through USDC-backed trades on Polygon, with the position settling against the conditionally issued token outcome once Wunderground records the day’s highest temperature at Wellington Intl Airport Station.

The useful frame here is seasonal rather than dramatic: late July is mid-winter in Wellington, and published July norms cluster around the low teens Celsius, with typical highs near 11–13°C and frequent rain or cloud.[8][13][20] Recent forecast pages for 31 July also point to a cool, unsettled day, with highs around 53–62°F (about 11–17°C) and rain or showers shown across multiple services, which keeps the odds of an unusually warm spike low unless the site’s hourly maximum breaks materially above the modelled range.[1][2][12]

For traders, the key catalysts are the short-horizon forecast updates into Friday, especially changes in cloud cover, wind direction, and rainfall timing that can shift the day’s peak temperature by a few degrees. Wellington is currently shown with strong wind-related advisories on some services, and local wind forecasts are already pointing to northerly or southerly gusts, which matter because föhn-like downslope effects or clearing windows can lift the afternoon high even in winter.[4][6][16] Because settlement depends on the airport station reading on Wunderground rather than a city average, intraday observations and any late forecast revision are the main dependencies to watch before the 12:00 UTC close.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.