Highest temperature in Wellington on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington on 7 July 2026 will see its highest temperature recorded at the Wellington International Airport Station, with the market currently pricing a 13°C outcome at 51% and a 14°C outcome at 43%, while the binary "YES" contract for any temperature above a specific threshold sits at 0% [1]. This pricing reflects the collective view of traders on Polygon using USDC and conditional tokens, where liquidity shifts in real-time as new data arrives, making the contract a live barometer of weather expectations rather than a static bet on an abstract event [1].

Historically, July in Wellington is cool, with long-range averages rarely exceeding 15°C, and recent heatwaves in New Zealand have pushed temperatures to 30.3°C only during extreme summer events in February, not mid-winter July [5]. The 13°C frontrunner aligns with typical winter highs for the region, where the 1991–2020 normals show maximum daily temperatures well below 20°C, and the 1930s data indicates high variability but no record-breaking warmth in July [3]. This frames the current 0% "YES" probability as a rational assessment that extreme warmth is implausible in mid-winter, not a market error.

Traders should monitor the upcoming 72-hour forecast from NIWA and the daily Wunderground updates for Wellington Intl Airport, as any unexpected northerly wind surge could shift temperatures toward 14°C [5]. The settlement window ends on 7 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, so the final resolution depends solely on the highest temperature recorded at all times on that day, with no dependency on future announcements beyond the immediate weather cycle [1]. Recent news from NIWA confirms that while heatwaves are possible in New Zealand, they are seasonal and typically occur in summer, reinforcing the low probability of a 14°C+ outlier in July [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.