Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** on the current board, which means the market is effectively assigning no live probability to the relevant Wuhan Tianhe Airport daily maximum landing in the listed outcome band. On Polymarket, traders are buying and selling conditional tokens in USDC on Polygon, so the price reflects consensus about where Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table will place the highest temperature for 10 August rather than the broader city forecast. The resolution source is the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station page on Wunderground, with the daily table taking priority over the summary section if the two differ.[10][8]

August is Wuhan’s hottest month in most climatological datasets, with typical highs around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius and occasional heat spikes pushing much higher. Historic and comparable datasets show August averages near 33–34°C, while record highs for Wuhan have reached about 41°C, and recent years have also produced extreme single-day peaks around 40°C to 41°C.[3][4][5][7][11] That backdrop matters for reading a 0% market price: it is not a statement that Wuhan cannot be hot in August, but that the current order book sees the specific resolution band as extremely unlikely.

The main catalysts are short-horizon forecast updates and the actual station observations appearing in Wunderground’s daily log as the day progresses, because the market resolves off the recorded maximum rather than a forecast headline.[10][8] Traders typically watch whether daytime heating, cloud cover, rain, or a passing weather system suppresses the top reading into one band or another, especially in a city where August heat is often persistent.[11][18] With settlement tied to the Wunderground station record, late changes in the observed daily maximum matter more than any generic city forecast or summary display.[10][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.