Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature of that day in degrees Celsius. The market currently trades at 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, suggesting traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific range or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will contain the settlement value. Resolution depends entirely on the Observatory's published "Absolute Daily Min" figure from their Daily Extract database, measured to one decimal place.

Hong Kong's July temperatures are remarkably consistent within narrow bounds. Historical data shows minimum temperatures in mid-July typically range between 25.0°C and 27.0°C, with the 30-year average around 25.8°C. The lowest July minimum on record is 20.9°C (July 1975), an outlier driven by an unusually active monsoon period. Most years cluster within a 2–3 degree band, making the current 0% pricing across all ranges unusual—it likely reflects low trading volume rather than genuine consensus that the event cannot occur.

The primary catalyst for this market is the monsoon season's intensity during early-to-mid July. The Southwest Monsoon dominates Hong Kong's weather at this time, and stronger-than-normal systems occasionally push minimum temperatures below the seasonal norm. Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's 7-day forecast issued around 10 July, which will clarify whether any low-pressure systems or tropical disturbances are approaching. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, giving traders roughly 12 hours after local midnight to adjust positions before the Observatory publishes final data.

Methodology

This page reviews Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.