Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's lowest temperature on 19 July 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground historical data. The market currently prices this outcome at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting the settlement window's closure at midday UTC on that date. Traders are pricing conditional tokens on USDC via Polygon, where each resolved bracket will pay out proportionally based on the actual recorded minimum.

July in Shanghai typically sees daily lows between 24–28°C, though heat waves can push minimums above 30°C and occasional tropical systems may suppress temperatures lower. Historical records show that extreme heat dominates this period; the city has recorded only three instances of sub-20°C lows in July across the past two decades, all tied to unusual weather systems. The 0% probability currently assigned suggests the market is heavily weighted towards mid-to-high range outcomes, leaving lower temperature brackets substantially underpriced relative to their historical frequency.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and track any El Niño or La Niña signals from June onwards, as these drive summer weather patterns across eastern China. The East Asian summer monsoon intensity in early July will signal whether cooler, wetter systems might reach Shanghai by mid-month. Wunderground's historical records for Pudong Station have proven reliable for settlement purposes on prior weather markets, though traders should verify data availability 24 hours before the window closes to account for any reporting delays.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.