Highest temperature in Beijing on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current market pricing reflects 0% probability assigned to the YES outcome, suggesting traders are either heavily weighted toward alternative temperature bands or the contract terms themselves present unusual settlement mechanics that warrant scrutiny of the resolution methodology.

Beijing's August climate historically produces peak temperatures between 28–35°C, with the city's 30-year average high for mid-August around 31°C. The 2023 summer saw extreme heat events across northern China, with Beijing recording temperatures exceeding 40°C in July, though August typically moderates slightly. Recent years show considerable year-on-year variation; the 2022 August average high was approximately 29°C, whilst 2021 peaked higher at 32°C. This volatility means historical precedent alone provides limited predictive power for any single day's range assignment.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature bands. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations table and the Day High & Low summary section creates a technical dependency—discrepancies occasionally arise from data processing delays or station calibration issues. Polygon-based conditional token mechanics mean position holders should verify settlement source documentation before expiry, as resolution disputes hinge entirely on which Weather Underground dataset prevails.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on August 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.