Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will determine this market's resolution. The contract currently trades at 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, suggesting the market has not yet priced meaningful conviction into any specific outcome. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on that date, with Weather Underground's Daily Observations table serving as the authoritative data source rather than summary figures.

Chengdu's August climate presents a narrow historical band for comparison. The city experiences peak summer heat in mid-August, with daily highs typically ranging between 28–35°C, though extremes occasionally breach 36°C during heatwave conditions. The 0% probability across all ranges reflects the market's nascent state rather than genuine uncertainty about whether temperatures will occur—the real question concerns which specific band captures the day's maximum. Historical data from 2015–2024 shows that temperatures above 37°C occur roughly once every three to four years during August in Chengdu, whilst readings below 28°C are exceptionally rare for this period.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the weeks preceding mid-August, as these typically provide reliable 10–14 day outlooks. El Niño or La Niña conditions could shift seasonal patterns, whilst any documented heatwave warnings from provincial authorities would signal elevated temperature expectations. The settlement mechanism's reliance on Shuangliu Airport data—rather than urban centre readings—matters operationally, as airport stations often record slightly lower temperatures than city-centre locations due to different surface conditions.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.