Highest temperature in Paris on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris will record its peak temperature for 15 July 2026 at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that daily high. The contract currently trades at 0% probability for the YES outcome, implying the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range defined for that option. This pricing reflects the typical July climate in Paris, where average highs sit around 26°C, though daily peaks can swing between 20°C and 43°C depending on atmospheric conditions [1].

Historical data shows that while extreme heatwaves have pushed Paris temperatures toward 40°C in recent years, such events remain statistical outliers against the baseline of mild to warm summer days. The current 0% implied probability suggests traders view the specific range in question as highly unlikely, consistent with the standard July profile where temperatures rarely breach the upper extremes without a confirmed heat dome. Comparable cases from previous summers indicate that unless a major warm air mass is forecast, the city usually stays within the 20–30°C band.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, for the official high temperature recorded at LFPB on this date. No formal announcements or scheduled catalysts are expected beyond the natural progression of the weather day itself, as the settlement depends solely on the observed maximum. The on-chain mechanics on Polygon, settled in USDC via conditional tokens, will execute automatically once Wunderground publishes the verified figure, ensuring a transparent and immutable resolution without intermediary intervention.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.