Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges measured in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% probability on Polygon, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or traders awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasting models as the date approaches. Settlement hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that matters when intraday temperature spikes occur between official recording intervals.

Seoul's August climate presents consistent patterns: the city experiences peak summer heat during mid-August, with historical highs typically ranging between 28°C and 34°C at Incheon. The 2023 heatwave pushed temperatures to 33.1°C on 17 August; the 2022 equivalent recorded 31.2°C. These precedents establish the likely resolution range, though anomalous weather systems—tropical cyclones tracking northward or unusual high-pressure systems—can shift outcomes significantly. The zero probability across all brackets suggests the market awaits initial price discovery rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether temperatures will occur.

Traders should monitor typhoon forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Korea Meteorological Administration from late July onwards, as tropical systems can suppress temperatures substantially. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into August 2026 will influence broader atmospheric patterns. The USDC settlement mechanism on Polygon means conditional token holders face no counterparty risk once positions are minted, though liquidity depth remains critical for entry and exit at reasonable spreads.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.