Highest temperature in Dallas on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas will record its peak heat for 15 July 2026 at the Love Field Station, with the market now pricing the outcome as a specific Fahrenheit range rather than a single number. On Polymarket, the contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens represent each temperature bracket; today, the 90–91°F range commands a 44% implied probability, while 88–89°F sits at 30%, leaving the “YES” side for any outcome outside these bands effectively at 0% [1].

Historical mid-July heat in Dallas typically clusters between 88°F and 94°F, with Love Field often lagging slightly behind downtown due to its airport setting and surrounding green space. The current 44% weighting on 90–91°F aligns with the median of recent comparable years, suggesting traders view a mild-to-moderate heatwave as the baseline, while the 30% on 88–89°F reflects a cooler-than-average scenario that has occurred in roughly one-third of past Julys.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 72-hour forecast for the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex, which updates twice daily and flags any developing high-pressure ridges that could push temperatures above 92°F. A sudden shift in the 500-millibar pressure map or an unexpected influx of moisture from the Gulf could alter the range within hours of settlement, which closes at 12:00 UTC on 15 July 2026, with Wunderground’s official daily max as the sole resolution source.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.