Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine the outcome of this prediction contract, with the crowd currently assigning zero per cent probability to any outcome above the lowest range. Polymarket prices this agreement today at $18.5K in total volume on the Polygon network, where USDC settles conditional tokens for outcomes like “34°C or higher” ($7.4K volume) and “31°C” (5% probability). The on-chain mechanics mean traders are betting on real meteorological data sourced from Wunderground, not abstract speculation.

Historical July weather in Guangzhou consistently frames extreme heat as routine rather than exceptional. Daily highs average around 91°F (33°C), rarely dipping below 85°F (29°C) or exceeding 96°F (36°C), with the city’s highest recorded temperature reaching 39°C (102°F) in July [2][4]. Recent years show July 2026’s average high at 92°F (33.3°C), and Guangzhou experienced its highest average July temperature since 1961, marked by continuous sunny days [3][5]. This context makes the current 0% probability for higher ranges appear statistically misaligned with decades of observed patterns.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s daily forecast updates and any official announcements regarding heatwave warnings scheduled for early July. A recent AccuWeather forecast for July 2026 predicts daily highs ranging from 87°F to 100°F (31°C–38°C), with an average high of 92°F (33°C) [3]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s recorded maximum temperature for the day, so any discrepancy between forecast models and actual station data could trigger rapid price shifts. No moralising is needed; the facts show a clear divergence between market pricing and historical climate reality.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.