Highest temperature in London on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES**, so the market is pricing in no chance that the highest temperature at London City Airport on 5 August 2026 lands in the YES range. The settlement is tied to the Wunderground history page for London City Airport Station, and the contract only resolves on the day’s recorded maximum, so the relevant trading input is the airport observation rather than a citywide average.

That 0% reading is consistent with the day’s published forecasts, which cluster around the mid-20s Celsius rather than heatwave territory. One forecast puts London at about **25°C** with sunny intervals and a very low rain chance[2], while another set of models centres the day near **24.3°C to 25.7°C**[4]. August climate norms for London also sit well below extreme thresholds, with typical daytime highs around **21°C to 22°C** and only modest rainfall frequency[9][10]. For a trader holding conditional tokens on Polygon, that means the contract is currently behaving like a tail-risk instrument rather than a broad weather view.

The main catalysts are the live forecast updates through the morning, any short-notice shift in cloud cover or winds, and whether the London City Airport reading runs a degree or two hotter than city forecasts due to local effects. The market is also sensitive to the exact midday settlement cut-off at **12:00 UTC**, because any late-morning spike still counts if it is captured in the Wunderground daily maximum. In practice, the key watch items are official forecast revisions and the airport station’s own reported high as the day develops, rather than general London conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on August 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.