Highest temperature in Milan on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Milan’s highest temperature on 15 July 2026 at Malpensa International Airport is the real-world event this contract prices, with the market currently implying a 100% chance the outcome will fall within a specific range. On Polymarket, traders are using USDC on the Polygon network to buy conditional tokens, and the frontrunner outcome is 34°C at 46% implied probability, followed by 33°C at 29% [1]. This pricing reflects active on-chain positioning rather than a static forecast, with liquidity concentrated around these two temperature bands.

Historical July data for Milan shows typical daytime highs of 29°C, though heatwaves can push temperatures into the 33–35°C range, as seen in southern Italy where highs reach 30–35°C during the month [2][3]. The recent 5 July 2026 reading of 33°C at Malpensa confirms that 33°C is a credible outcome, having already resolved correctly on a similar market [4]. The current 100% YES probability suggests the market believes the temperature will fall within the defined settlement range, likely between 33°C and 34°C, aligning with recent observed extremes.

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for Malpensa, as the market resolves solely on the highest temperature recorded there on 15 July [1]. No official weather announcements are scheduled, but regional heat advisories from Italian meteorological services could signal a spike. The dependency is purely on the recorded data point, with no external catalysts beyond the temperature reading itself. Settlement closes at 2026-07-15T12:00:00Z, so final price convergence will occur once the day’s peak is confirmed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Milan on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.