Highest temperature in NYC on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the LaGuardia high for 9 August as a **0% YES** event, with the contract’s resolution tied to the **highest temperature in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table**, settled through USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens. In practical terms, that means traders are not betting on a generic New York City afternoon high; they are marking a specific station reading at KLGA against fixed temperature bins, and the market can still be affected by late updates to the source table before the first datapoint for the following date is published.[4]

For context, the market had been leaning to a hot but not extreme result earlier, with Polymarket showing **90–91°F** as the dominant band before settlement, while AccuWeather’s August outlook for New York pointed to highs around **90°F** on 9 August.[2][4] That sits below the city’s most notorious heat episodes, but it is still warm enough that a single station report at LaGuardia can shift the outcome between adjacent bins. Recent historical tracking also shows KLGA reaching **88.0°F** in the latest report seen on 9 August, underlining how close the read can be to the boundary between outcomes.[1]

A trader watching this contract mainly needs to track the station feed, not headline forecasts, because the settlement source is the observed maximum in the Daily Observations table and revisions can count until the next day’s first datapoint appears.[4] The key catalysts are any late-afternoon or evening temperature spikes at LaGuardia, plus any official updates that change the recorded daily maximum after initial publication.[4][13] News and forecast products from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather matter only insofar as they shape expectations for that station reading, but the on-chain price will ultimately settle off the published Wunderground data.[2][10][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.