Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport on 7 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket currently prices the YES contract at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will not fall within the specific range being wagered on, likely because historical data suggests a higher or lower threshold.

Historical patterns frame this near-zero probability clearly. July in Qingdao typically sees daily highs rising from 78°F to 83°F (26°C to 29°C), rarely dropping below 71°F or exceeding 89°F (32°C). The city’s hottest recorded day hit 33.1°C in August 2018, while average July highs sit around 29°C. Given these baselines, the 0% YES price suggests the market expects the temperature to land outside the narrow range defined by the contract, possibly anticipating a value closer to the 29–32°C band rather than the specific threshold implied by the YES outcome.

Traders should monitor immediate weather forecasts and any official announcements from local meteorological services ahead of the settlement window. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s recorded data for the airport station, so any discrepancies in sensor reporting or updates to the historical database could alter the outcome. Recent climate models indicate stable summer conditions for Shandong, but sudden shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover could push temperatures beyond expected averages. Watching the hourly forecast from AccuWeather for Qingdao in the coming days will provide the most reliable signal for whether the temperature will breach the contract’s threshold before the 2026-07-07T12:00:00Z deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.