Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Incheon Airport temperature range contract at **0% YES** right now, even though the underlying weather set-up is firmly in the midsummer heat season and the market settles on the day’s *highest recorded temperature* at Incheon Intl Airport Station, not a citywide average. The market is a standard Polymarket instrument: traders hold **conditional tokens** on Polygon and settle in **USDC**, so the question is whether the station’s observed maximum on 5 August lands inside the specified bracket by the Wunderground history page.

For context, Seoul-area August climate is normally hot and humid, with typical daytime highs around the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, but Seoul’s extreme August records can reach the high 30s. Holiday-weather cites an August record high of **38.2°C** for Seoul, while current forecasts for the capital today point to **38°C** and ongoing severe heat-wave warnings across the metropolitan area.[15][1] That matters because this contract is keyed to Incheon airport, which usually runs a little cooler than central Seoul but can still post a high enough reading on a clear, stagnant, late-summer day to move the outcome into a higher temperature band.

The main catalysts to watch are the official short-term forecast from the Korea Meteorological Administration and whether heat advisories, showers, or cloud cover alter the afternoon peak.[6][11] SBS reports intense heat persisting in western regions, with Seoul forecast near **38°C** today and showers only patchy, which supports a high-end temperature print if sunshine dominates the airport’s local conditions.[1] For traders, the practical drivers are simple: cloud cover timing, any afternoon convection, and whether the airport station’s measured maximum differs from the broader Seoul forecast enough to leave the result inside or outside the relevant Wunderground range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.