Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES**, so the on-chain price is saying Haneda’s recorded high on 24 July 2026 is not expected to land in the winning temperature band. The market resolves from the highest temperature logged at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on Wunderground, so the trade is really about the day’s observed maximum rather than a citywide forecast. Because settlement is in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, the relevant question is whether the official daily high ends up inside the exact range that matches the contract’s payout rules, not whether Tokyo simply feels hot overall.

For context, July in Tokyo is normally a high-heat, high-humidity period. Seasonal outlooks for Tokyo in July point to daytime highs around 30°C and warm overnight lows near 25°C, with frequent rain through the month[1]. Travel guidance for the same period also frames midday as the hottest part of the day, with outdoor activity concentrated in the morning and late afternoon[2]. That combination matters for this market because a 0% print implies traders think the settlement window is unlikely to capture an unusually strong spike at Haneda, even though midsummer conditions are supportive of warm readings.

The main catalysts are the day’s live weather pattern and anything that shifts the surface temperature around Haneda during the morning Japanese hours before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. In practice, traders will watch cloud cover, rainfall, wind direction, and whether the airport escapes early-morning cooling before solar heating builds. Since the market keys off a single station reading from Wunderground, localised conditions near Haneda matter more than broader Tokyo forecasts, and even a modest change in the morning trajectory can move the final highest-temperature bucket.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.