Highest temperature in Toronto on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **0% YES**, so the contract is trading as if Toronto Pearson will not record a top temperature in the mapped winning range on the settlement day. That score is not about the *average* forecast; it is about the single highest reading logged at Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station on Wunderground, with the outcome ultimately resolved through the market’s conditional tokens on Polygon and settled in USDC.

For context, August in Toronto is usually warm rather than extreme. Long-run and monthly forecast pages cluster around mid-20s Celsius highs, with typical August highs near 25–27°C and averages around 21–22°C, while even broader seasonal profiles show daily highs often in the low-to-mid 20s and only occasional pushes into the low 30s.[1][3][14][16][19] That makes the current zero price consistent with a market expecting a fairly ordinary summer day rather than a heat spike, although airport readings can still differ from downtown forecasts because of local wind, cloud cover and rain timing.[8][10]

A trader watching the day itself should focus on any late-morning forecast shifts, thunderstorm risk, and the timing of sunshine versus cloud cover, because the market settles on the day’s *maximum* rather than the overnight low.[8][15][20] Toronto weather updates remain the main dependency, and any short-lived warm surge before showers arrive can matter more than the headline daily average. With the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC, the relevant question for Polymarket users is whether Pearson posts an early-day high that lands inside the specified Celsius band before conditions ease later in the session.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Toronto on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.