World Cup Winner
Yes 11%
No 89%
Vol. $3434.7M
What is a prediction market? How do prediction markets work? Complete guide: binary contracts, USDC settlement, Polymarket mechanics, and how to start trading in 10 minutes.
One sentence: A prediction market lets you bet real money on whether a specific event will happen — and if you're right, every contract you hold pays exactly $1.00.
Every prediction market is built on a simple structure. Take this example:
Market: "Will Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 31, 2026?"
The price of a YES share directly reflects the market's collective probability estimate. If YES trades at $0.72, the market believes there is a 72% chance Bitcoin reaches that target. This is why prediction market prices are used by researchers, journalists, and policymakers as probability estimates.
Unlike traditional bookmakers who set odds, prediction market prices emerge from supply and demand between participants. When more people think YES is likely, they buy YES shares, pushing the price up. When more think NO, NO share prices rise. The price stabilises at the level where buyers and sellers agree.
This is the Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) model used by Polymarket — the same mechanism that sets stock prices on exchanges. PolyGram connects to Polymarket's CLOB, meaning the prices you see on PolyGram are the same prices set by Polymarket's global participant base.
When a market resolves (the event date passes), a resolution oracle determines the outcome. Polymarket uses the UMA oracle — a decentralised, smart-contract-based verification system.
No counterparty risk: Funds are held in smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain, not by a company. Even if Polymarket or PolyGram shut down tomorrow, your correct predictions would still pay out via the smart contract.
Traditional polls and analyst forecasts have a fundamental problem: the forecaster has no financial skin in the game. A pundit who says "70% chance of X" loses nothing if they're wrong.
On a prediction market, every probability estimate costs real money. Traders who consistently misjudge probabilities lose money. Over time, only the most accurate assessments survive — which is why prediction market prices aggregate information more efficiently than any single expert.
Track record: Polymarket's markets predicted the 2024 US election outcome more accurately than FiveThirtyEight, the Economist, and every major polling aggregator. Academic research consistently shows prediction markets outperform surveys.
A prediction market is a platform where you trade binary contracts on real-world outcomes. If your prediction is correct, each contract pays $1.00. If wrong, it pays $0.
Most prediction markets charge no house edge. Revenue comes from a small transaction fee (0–2%). Prices are set by market participants — the operator does not build in a margin.
Prediction markets on decentralised protocols like Polymarket are not UKGC-regulated gambling products. UK users can access them legally, though HMRC may treat profits as taxable income.
On PolyGram, there is no minimum deposit. You can trade with as little as 1 USDC. The smallest contract price on most markets is around 0.01 USDC per share.
Numerous academic studies show prediction markets outperform individual forecasters and polls. Polymarket's predictions have been more accurate than major polling aggregators in every US election since 2020.
Live data from Polymarket · updated hourly