Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 64% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 60% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Game 2 Winner | 41% |
| Game Handicap: DK.C (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers Challengers (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing this LoL best-of-three at **41% YES** today, so the contract is being treated as a clear underdog angle for DN SOOPers Challengers on Polygon with settlement in USDC through conditional tokens. That level implies the market favours Dplus KIA Challengers, but not by a wide margin, which is typical for academy-level series where line-ups, drafting and late schedule changes can move the price quickly.
The main historical anchor is the pair’s recent head-to-head: Dplus KIA Challengers beat DN SOOPers Challengers **2-0** in their May meeting, but earlier results between the two were split, and recent listings show both sides have already taken wins in this rivalry. Public match trackers also describe the current series as a **best of 3** in the LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group, which matters because BO3 markets are more sensitive to map-level form and draft edges than single-game pricing. In practical Polymarket terms, traders are not just voting on team strength; they are also exposing USDC to whether the scheduled series is actually played and completed within the market’s resolution rules.
What to watch before the 16:45 UTC settlement window is any official broadcast, start-time adjustment, or roster update from the league and team channels. The market description says a cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days without a winner would resolve differently, so a postponement can be as important as the result itself. Because the match is listed for 03 August with online play and a fixed start slot in esports schedules, the key catalyst is whether the series begins on time and whether either team fields its expected Challengers roster.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Trade LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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