National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **Alexei Popyrin at 56% YES** versus Thiago Agustín Tirante, which is close to the broader market view for a tight third-round match on Montreal hard courts.[15][3] On the contract mechanics, traders are buying and selling conditional exposure settled in **USDC** on **Polygon**; the market resolves to the named player only if that player advances, and falls back to **50-50** if the match is not played, ends tied, or is delayed more than seven days without a winner.[15]

The current price sits in line with comparable pre-match signals, which range from roughly **54% for Popyrin** on Tennis.com to **58% for Tirante** in crowd polling on Tennistemple, showing this is not a one-sided book.[3][9] The two have **no head-to-head record**, so traders are leaning on surface fit, ranking context, and the fact that this is a first meeting rather than any direct history.[4][5][8] Popyrin is listed as the lower-ranked qualifier in some feeds, while Tirante’s live ranking sits higher, which helps explain why pricing has stayed near the middle rather than moving sharply one way.[2][6]

What matters now is whether the match is actually played on schedule at **Rogers Court** and whether the draw and court order hold, because some listings have already shifted the start time across feeds from the original slot to later in the day.[1][7][10] If the match begins but does not finish, Polymarket’s contract terms indicate the market goes to **50-50**, so any trader holding risk through late scheduling or weather interruptions is really trading both the result and the completion status.[15] Recent sportsbook and preview lines have also kept Popyrin only a modest favourite, with moneyline pricing around **-140** and editorial previews still calling it a close contest.[11][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.