SC Recife vs. Botafogo FC

Platform comparison

Market context

Sport Recife faces Botafogo-SP in a Brasileirão Série B clash on Friday, 10 July 2026 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Recife, with the match now concluded as today is 11 July. On Polymarket, the YES contract for this fixture trades at 0% implied probability, reflecting that the event has already passed and the outcome is settled on-chain. Traders using USDC on Polygon see conditional tokens locked with no further upside, as the settlement window closed at 23:00 UTC on 10 July.

Historically, Série B contracts that hit 0% before settlement typically indicate a decisive loss for the named team or a match abandonment where the condition failed outright. In comparable 2025 Série B markets, contracts priced at 0% pre-settlement correlated with away defeats or draws when the condition required a home win, with no late reversals once the clock expired. This pattern suggests the 0% price here is not speculative but factual, anchored in the final result rather than market doubt.

Traders should monitor official league confirmations on the Brazilian Football Confederation (CBF) site for any post-match disciplinary actions or result alterations, though such changes are rare after full-time. No new announcements are expected, as the fixture’s schedule and dependencies have resolved. With the settlement window closed and results live on Sofascore and Flashscore, the on-chain outcome is immutable, and USDC positions will resolve automatically based on the official result [1][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track SC Recife vs. Botafogo FC across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.