Norway vs. England - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 July 2026 at 5:00 PM ET, Norway and England will face off in a FIFA World Cup quarter-final at the Estadio Azteca, with the market currently pricing an exact score outcome at just 7% YES. This low probability reflects the historical volatility of knockout matches where top-tier defences meet aggressive attacks, such as England’s 3-2 win over Mexico despite playing most of the second half with ten men, or Norway’s stunning 2-1 victory over Brazil secured by Erling Haaland’s late goals [1][2]. In both cases, the final scores were far from predictable, underscoring why traders should treat any single exact score as a high-risk proposition rather than a likely event.

Traders must monitor pre-match announcements regarding squad availability, particularly Haaland’s fitness after his double against Brazil, and any tactical shifts from England’s manager following their historic first-ever World Cup win against Mexico [1][2]. The match odds show England as slight favourites at -105, with a total goals line of 2.5, suggesting a tight contest where a single goal could swing the result [3]. Recent data indicates Norway averages 2.67 goals per game but concedes 2.33, while England’s defensive record remains solid despite their high-scoring knockout wins [9]. With the settlement window closing at 21:00 UTC on 11 July, on-chain mechanics on Polygon using USDC will resolve conditional tokens based solely on the 90-minute result, excluding extra time and penalties.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Norway vs. England - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.