Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Prospects (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 90% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 87% |
| Map 2 Winner | 76% |
| Match Winner | 52% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-3.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map Handicap: CSH.P (-1.5) vs WW Team (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-6.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-9.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-3.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-6.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Prospects (-9.5) vs WW Team (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map Handicap: WW (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing WW Team at **0% YES** right now, which means the contract is effectively seeing no chance assigned to a WW Team win in this BO3 on Polygon, settled through the usual USDC-denominated conditional tokens. That sort of zero bid does not describe the wider Counter-Strike market in abstract; it simply shows that, at this moment, traders are not paying for WW exposure in this specific playoff match.
The backdrop matters because this is not an isolated pairing. CYBERSHOKE Prospects have already shown live form in the same NODWIN Clutch Series run, including a 2-0 over Honvéd and a playoff position that places them in a familiar best-of-three environment, while WW Team’s recent head-to-head history also includes a 2-0 win over CYBERSHOKE Prospects in November 2025.[10][6][17] Comparable esports markets on the same fixture have tended to lean towards CYBERSHOKE rather than a tight coin-flip, with third-party pricing showing CYBERSHOKE around 38% on a parallel match page and another preview listing them as the favourite by a wider margin.[14][11]
For traders, the key catalysts are mundane but decisive: whether the match actually starts on schedule, whether the bracket is confirmed to remain a BO3, and whether any live-delay or forfeit issues emerge before the settlement window closes.[1][5][14] At 09:58 UTC, multiple match pages still reflect live or not-started status around this fixture, which is exactly the sort of scheduling noise that can matter for a contract that resolves only on the match result, or falls to 50-50 if the game is not played, tied, or delayed beyond seven days.[1][3][13]
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3… on PolyGram
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