Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Boca Juniors O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Boca Juniors 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O'Higgins FC O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| CA Boca Juniors 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CA Boca Juniors 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O'Higgins FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O'Higgins FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CA Boca Juniors O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| CA Boca Juniors O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| O'Higgins FC O/U 0.5 | 24% |
| O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| CA Boca Juniors (-1.5) | 7% |
| Both Teams to Score | 5% |
| CA Boca Juniors (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| O'Higgins FC O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| O'Higgins FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| O'Higgins FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Boca Juniors 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O'Higgins FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O'Higgins FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Boca Juniors host O’Higgins in the Copa Sudamericana knockout playoff first leg, and Polymarket currently prices the related “More Markets” contract at about **7% YES**, with traders locking USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens rather than betting the match directly in the abstract.[1] That low single-digit price implies the crowd sees only a slim chance that one of the extra market conditions resolves true, even though Boca are the clear favourite in the underlying fixture and the contract sits alongside a main match market already drawing modest volume.[1]
Recent price guides outside Polymarket are broadly consistent with Boca being strongly favoured, with home-win odds clustered around 1.27 to 1.32 and away-win prices in double figures, while goals markets lean more mixed, especially around both-teams-to-score and totals near 2.5.[2][4][6] For a Polymarket user, that matters because “more markets” contracts often depend on secondary outcomes such as whether the game produces enough statistical activity, not simply who advances; that leaves room for a 7% price even in a one-sided tie if traders expect a controlled Boca win rather than a volatile, high-event match.[3][8]
The main catalysts are the final line-ups, any late injury or rotation news, and whether the tie setup encourages caution or aggression in the opening leg, since those factors can shift secondary market conditions more quickly than the 1x2 price.[3][4] Traders should also watch for official competition scheduling and match-state dependencies around kickoff, because the settlement window closes shortly after the game and these contracts resolve mechanically from the recorded event data on-chain, not from opinion.[1]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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