Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-4.5) vs XLG Gaming (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-5.5) vs XLG Gaming (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-3.5) vs G2 Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-4.5) vs G2 Esports (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-5.5) vs G2 Esports (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-6.5) vs XLG Gaming (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-8.5) vs XLG Gaming (+8.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-7.5) vs XLG Gaming (+7.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: xlg gaming vs g2 esports (bo3) - esports world cup group c stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Elimination match between XLG Gaming and G2 Esports in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for July 5 at 9:45AM ET. This market w…
Methodology
We track Valorant: XLG Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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