National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices the contract at **19% YES**, so the market is treating Terence Atmane as a clear outsider against Jakub Mensik, though not a dead one. On Polymarket, buyers are holding conditional tokens on Polygon settled in USDC, and the contract resolves to the player who advances; if the match is not played, ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner, it resolves 50-50.

The shape of that price fits the broader profile of the matchup. There is no head-to-head record between the pair, so traders are leaning on recent form and surface performance rather than a direct comparison.[1][8] Mensik has the stronger overall record across the past 52 weeks and a better hard-court win rate, while Atmane’s results are more modest and his career hard-court record is weaker.[2][4] That makes a sub-20% price on Atmane consistent with a market that sees him as needing a specific in-match edge, not just a neutral start.

For traders, the main catalysts are simple but important: official tournament scheduling, whether the match starts on time, and any late withdrawal, walkover or weather disruption. The National Bank Open listing places the match in the third round and confirms the contest is on hard court, which matters because hard-court performance is where Mensik’s statistical edge is strongest.[8][14] With the settlement window running to 14 August, any delay that pushes the match beyond the seven-day rule would move the contract away from a straight win/loss outcome and into the 50-50 fallback.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.