Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains the sitting US President, with no credible indication of resignation or removal before July 31, 2026. On Polymarket, this contract trades at a 1% implied probability for “Yes”, reflecting the market’s view that permanent exit from office is highly unlikely in the next six weeks. The on-chain mechanics use USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens determining payout based solely on whether Trump ceases to hold the presidency permanently before the settlement deadline.

Historically, no US president has resigned or been removed mid-term in the last century except Richard Nixon (resigned, 1974) and Andrew Johnson (removed via impeachment vote but not expelled; survived Senate trial). The 25th Amendment has never been invoked to permanently remove a president, and Section 4 of the 25th has only been used temporarily. Given Trump’s strong political base and lack of legal or medical crisis, the 1% price aligns with precedent rather than speculation.

Traders should monitor White House announcements, executive order schedules, and any sudden health disclosures. A recent White House video from June 22, 2026, shows Trump signing executive orders, confirming active governance [8]. The next major catalyst is the July 3, 2026, Declaration of Emergency announcement, which may signal political or legal shifts [4]. Any official resignation notice before July 31 would instantly resolve the market to “Yes”, regardless of when the effect takes place.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.