Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol will record a daily high temperature on 14 August 2026, measured via the station's meteorological instruments and logged in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently prices this contract at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting the settlement window's two-year horizon and the inherent difficulty in pricing weather events at such distance. On Polygon, traders hold conditional tokens representing discrete temperature ranges in Celsius; the contract resolves to whichever band captures the actual recorded high, with USDC settlement following Weather Underground's primary data source rather than its summary figures.

Historical August temperatures at Schiphol show considerable variability. The station recorded 30.0°C on 14 August 2012, whilst the month's all-time high reached 32.6°C in 2003. Recent summers have trended warmer; 2022 saw multiple days exceed 30°C in August, and 2023 produced similar patterns. These precedents suggest the market's 0% pricing reflects pure temporal uncertainty rather than climatological implausibility—any temperature band above 25°C remains meteorologically plausible for mid-August in the Netherlands.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European climate forecasting updates as August 2026 approaches, particularly anomaly predictions from the UK Met Office or ECMWF issued in the preceding weeks. Broader atmospheric circulation patterns—jet stream positioning, high-pressure systems over continental Europe—typically crystallise 10–14 days before the event. The specific reliance on Schiphol's Daily Observations table means any station maintenance or sensor recalibration scheduled for that period could affect resolution mechanics, though such disruptions remain rare.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.